Air Quality and Climate Change, Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia III), Part I: overview and model evaluation

摘要

Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating high aerosol pollution in the North China Plain region during wintertime haze events and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative and microphysical feedbacks. A comprehensive overview of the MICS-ASIA III Topic 3 study design, including descriptions of participating models and model inputs, the experimental designs, and results of model evaluation, are presented. Two winter months (January 2010 and January 2013) were selected as study periods, when severe haze occurred in North China. Simulations were designed to evaluate radiative and microphysical feedbacks, together and separately, relative to simulations without feedbacks. Six modeling groups from China, Korea and the United States submitted results from seven applications of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Results are compared to meteorology and air quality measurements, including the Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China (CARE-China) network, and the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The analysis focuses on model evaluations and aerosol effects on meteorology and air quality, and potentially other interesting topics, such as the impacts of model resolutions on aerosol-radiation-weather interactions. The model evaluations for January 2010 show that current online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model can generally well reproduced meteorological features and variations of major air pollutants, including aerosol concentrations. The correlation coefficients between multi-model ensemble mean and observed near-surface temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and wind speeds can reach as high as 0.99, 0.99 and 0.98. The correlation coefficients between multi-model ensemble mean and the CARE-China observed near-surface air pollutants range from 0.51 to 0.94 (0.51 for ozone and 0.94 for PM). However, large discrepancies exist between simulated aerosol chemical compositions from different models, which is due to different parameterizations of chemical reactions. The coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by average) can reach above 1.3 for sulfate in Beijing, and above 1.6 for nitrate and organic aerosol in coastal regions, indicating these compositions are less consistent from different models. During clean periods, simulated Aerosol Optical Depths (AOD) from different models are consistent, but peak values differ during severe haze event, which can be explained by the differences in simulated inorganic aerosol concentrations and the hygroscopic growth efficiency (affected by varied RH). These results provide some brief senses of how current online-coupled meteorology-chemistry models reproduce severe haze events, and some directions for future model improvements.